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HomeMy WebLinkAboutPACKET Town Board Study Session Hydrology Study Results 2017-02-24 Estes Valley Hydrology Study Comments: Ron Norris, February 24, 2017 Hydrology studies are an investment. They provide us with an objective basis for understanding flood potential, flood risks, and what we can do to mitigate these risks. This hydrology study provides important new information that will help our government, our residents, and our business owners take action before the next flood to protect lives and property, and to mitigate the adverse economic consequences of future flood events. Such studies must be based on sound science. They must use modern, proven technologies for data collection and modeling. They must incorporate careful statistical analysis and thorough peer reviews by experts in the field. This study meets these criteria. The decisions based on this study will have major implications for our community. Several types of decisions will be made: • Conclusions and Recommendations: FEMA, and its partners at the State Water Conservation Board, will make these decisions- based on the scientific validity of the study's methodology, data collection, and analysis. New flood maps will be based on this information. This decision is based on science, not economics or politics. • Community Impact: Town government will assess what the study means in terms of public safety, protection of lives and property, and economic viability. We must decide what actions to build in to our strategic plan in order to work with citizens to preserve and sustain our unique Premier Mountain Community. • Individual Impact: Using the information provided by this study, every resident and every business owner should become familiar with its implications. Each of us must then determine what our level of risk is, and decide what actions are necessary. With this new information, all of us (government, nonprofits, businesses, and individuals) can then work together to determine mitigation steps needed to prevent future loss of life, minimize property damage, and reduce economic losses from future events. This study provides a sound basis for doing that. It uses modern technologies for mapping and modeling terrain and water flow. It makes conservative but realistic assumptions that take unusual (but not unprecedented) events into account. The work has been done by some of the most experienced people in their fields, and has undergone multiple peer reviews (and refinements) by leading experts. I support the study and its recommendations; I am convinced it provides the right basis for future planning for our Valley. MT 2OU `.. f AM.` Hydrology Study Results C�40R AV0 Town Board Study Session EstesPark100.com Celebrate the Vision Agenda February 27, 2 p.m. to 4 p.m. Town Board Room 1. Opening remarks — Frank Lancaster, Town Administrator. 2. Overview of state-wide hazard mapping efforts and Estes Park context— Kevin Houck, Colorado Water Conservation Board (CWCB) and lain Hyde, Colorado Resilience and Recovery Office. 3. Study results and overview of science behind the study— Dr. Andrew Earles, Wright Water Engineers. 4. Responsibilities of federal, state and local government agencies throughout the study and remapping process — David Sutley, Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), Kevin Houck, CWCB and Tina Kurtz, Town of Estes Park. 5. Potential Town actions to mitigate risk and protect economic interest of local businesses and opportunities available to stakeholders—Tina Kurtz, Town of Estes Park. 6. Questions Please visit www.estes.orq/floodmitiqation for additional information. Ann Town of Estes Park FEBRUARY 2017 Learn mote by visiting [1 170 MacGregor Ave. I P.O.Box 1200 www.estes.org/flood mitigation LLLLI • Estes Park,CO 8051/ 1910-586-5331 1917 ESTES PAWK Hydrology Study Results °` °° Town Board Study Session EstesPark100.com Celebrate the Vision Agenda February 27, 2 p.m. to 4 p.m. Town Board Room • 1. Opening remarks — Frank Lancaster, Town Administrator. 2. Overview of state-wide hazard mapping efforts and Estes Park context— Kevin Houck, Colorado Water Conservation Board (CWCB) and lain Hyde, Colorado Resilience and Recovery Office. 3. Study results and overview of science behind the study— Dr. Andrew Earles, Wright Water Engineers. 4. Responsibilities of federal, state and local government agencies throughout the study and remapping process — David Sutley, Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), Kevin Houck, CWCB and Tina Kurtz, Town of Estes Park. 5. Potential Town actions to mitigate risk and protect economic interest of local businesses and ( opportunities available to stakeholders—Tina Kurtz, Town of Estes Park. 6. Questions Please visit www.estes.orq/floodmitiqation for additional information. P Town of Estes Park FEBRUARY 2017 Learn more by visiting [1n 170 MacGregor Ave. I P.O.Box 1200 www.estes.org/floodmitigation Estes Park,CO 80517 1970-586-5331 \ ESTES PINK (deb.�he.tv, HYDROLOGY STUDY RESULTS BOARD STUDY SESSION FEBRUARY 27, 2017 2:00 P.M.-4:00 P.M. TOWN BOARD ROOM J V � ESTES PAUK o,;d° HYDROLOGY STUDY FUNDING SOURCES "rt.P "�"� • COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT BLOCK GRANT- DISASTER RECOVERY ROUND 2 PLANNING GRANT • ADMINISTERED BY THE COLORADO DEPARTMENT OF LOCAL AFFAIRS • COLORADO WATER CONSERVATION BOARD J 2i2Z/2017 J ESTES P5GK Ef1efM1ilOpaoa PRESENTERS CM°se'talon • IAIN HYDE,DEPUTY DIRECTOR,GOVERNOR'S COLORADO RESILIENCY AND RECOVERY OFFICE • KEVIN HOUCK, P.E.,CFM,CHIEF WATERSHED AND FLOOD PROTECTION DIVISION,COLORADO WATER CONSERVATION BOARD(CWCB) • DR. ANDREW EARLES, P.E.,D.WRE,VICE PRESIDENT—WRIGHT WATER ENGINEERS,INC. (WWE) • DAVID SUTLEY,P.E.,SENIOR HYDROLOGIC/HYDRAULIC ENGINEER—FEDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY(FEMA) • TINA KURTZ,CFM—FLOODPLAIN ADMINISTRATOR/ENVIRONMENTAL PLANNER/PLANNER III, TOWN OF ESTES PARK 2,27 2017 -!-.�J Town of Estes Park t. • February 27, 2017 . Colorado Hazard Mapping Program And Senate Bill 245 • ; s t., .:A V r ^1 1, ON R Kevin Houck,P.E., CFM CO Chief, Watershed and Flood Protection Colorado Water Conservation Board Ili_ .. ,1 1,; Floodplain Maps Portray Risk IM ,, th... as,«a halm f.",..?:r Mu, ( Rees J �. _z, t; illIr.-. ©n-.,3ri ''I' Vacua e I.41. Wit Palm lain £w.n tuna x.� v a CT �b ae .I. _-zu o.7m. cA c �" KS u....a va* t4>., IS. On, n.N. .y_7- )f...l ...c. u>r. Alm ® L " / l.a Lea L Rae Aa.0 — f Ankalan Ce.p A. q q M4,0 \ll" ' OK Location\lap �. �('_ : , Designated Counties i t FEMA at.. ig I I No Designation Id.....$a.a..w..V..o. Asa-orfaaus LICA: mpirIWdlt Assistance Srare+s101:11 5.w.1£31 _-. _Ind"nidual Assistance and PINK Assistan® faa:U-o-Jf Area ''J J*.1i 1 IM.511 �`` ." Senate Bill 15-245 _. f�' ;' Passed by General Assembly based on °' recommendations by Colorado Resiliency and Recovery Office and Floodplain Management Subcommittee - : Updates flood maps for entire northern flood " • affected area ', Also maps advisory erosion zones and debris i flow zones 1 Funds available July 1, 2015 i 2 Work complete June 30, 2018 Why SB 15-245 '' Outdated hydrology Updated understanding of rainfall r Additional 30-40 years of streamgauge record 2013 flood changed flooding characteristics ;, Preliminary analyses suggested flood risk 4 underportrayed in many areas Recovery should proceed according to ,,tit ..2.: current, updated data sf', Colorado Hazard Mapping Program 11, Watersheds Studied /.'; South Platte River -' 3 Big Thompson River (includes Estes Park) 3 Little Thompson River - e. St. Vrain Creek : ,. 2, Left Hand Creek '' ,` 2 Boulder Creek 2, Coal Creek T. Also includes numerous tributaries to above ,''‘ watersheds /----..,.. ) .„ r ' �, \ PM �. --.----T..,. , / ..i 7...' ..., • ,..--.;' ..• , -• ,..., ;_ •-•—t.., ,t-- --- ., ,-.......,...:....1 �I . ___,..../41: .`mot . _', South Platte River Inset 9 _ f-1..1 �� / I _�_ I. fir . 1 JF-� r I' ~1 ti Y ~ f '11 I� F49.I:Pbbdplt Moping Evaltor L. GI SW/ = — r Mapping Process • Update hydrology • . Gather updated terrain data • • Survey river infrastructure as needed Prepare hydraulic model to determine flood elevations Overlay flood elevations on to terrain map to produce floodplain boundaries rtt 'wn.�n.lec�a�,.i•d•.rcelaaal.umr.� 4� 11NorBFAUryGxllnlwNme 0 �''• 4eHA I.841 P-,tn'wdre ,tlW ,+ I",.n..'IrkkaINT.1 Cu by C... 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"This was an extreme and infrequent event, but it was not unexpected. The Colorado Front Range is uniquely positioned to occasionally be pounded by flood-producing storms. When you "-, look at past history and at future i possibilities, storms like this can and will happen again." ,Si„ — Nolan Doesken • e - The State Climatologist Says. . . "Spring storms are going to be accompanied by colder air aloft, so rain changing over to snow i=c _ would logically be expected...Late August through September provides some totally different possibilities because Colorado can (and did) get hit by remnants of tropical storms with much warmer, moister air. We have hi' experienced a few late summer/early fall tropical air masses in other parts of the state. They are a different animal."— Nolan Doesken ILFf Why the 2013 Flood Should be Considered i s The flood actually happened There is no physical or statistical reason it can't happen again It does not meet any meteorological or statistical criteria to be considered an outlier 't , It was a data-rich event that allows for a high level of calibration F not normally available Wr"' �'ad�°,;,y„e oo„1'I�® Colorado Hazard Mapping&Risk MAP Portal ti .asa-n.. ----- -------- ,Trust-male Fe: MMe. LUW. HR e.FrnAx. . �1 ! Floodplain Mapping co Hazard t.lapplrg Program ,b.,.v rr.,.l'..J".,I,,,_,v.alo v....gl:1a'clr...:Jodr...le9Yan9 to CO llara.a LU;Lry Rc9ram......l4yerl PI<.e[I News and Eeent•. About the Project Boulder County Floodp,aln Mapping Public mnJlMSepte„ta 0Is llxa asa.,,Cutr.rJbar O.1...fb.abkp tem Pm,a.tePerlp eft.ez N.u:+q.1..1 1W,,-P...rnorty Trarno...,avlb. each 204,CUWado'a LapaWee pasted al.rdgll Mbe crkiYl,.l,.rYd lu,.ry P,apam,.I.en en,Tw{rmYenw yr-n s'e Yap lt weetxpwr<csM ',Mulewm.aa n.ven le.'o M aa«ua tryhfue IocMl9 nosrn za trcm Pl.ems tete.,4.UN..r...z5a'a myn anm d,e IL,0..11....nwp........lt,usabt,mam,lra tre seem nml as.,tra beoeyew:rzn1lnang F..Et....Ala,4Jnrxr9 prty(FF1alYa u.:,pnti5NP,s Bg lhnoo.......x(Nub as MHO as..seu....ner moon MLrt0RMlx<masnme aevn..y.tr.., b'CUa WICurtlNgrg Pr,grn,/cILUIPI tm enupdeta WO."aaxets,ergo Nelt.F(Yxs)a-nno.dn9 to Po-tre era laarab Yxa b.ca,eNCbg,x mawarlay waHrnna lrwlanw,w-r.aMrrrna • r r Ing.....-..C.amnnp 1RAn.l lea ale ayaa'tl4LaeeeMaw.aa.bb:eta NLna otoo w4p'.n•yprM.cr.snba«ar<n., 'a.r5wla 51Naac,eeas„aP Nan C,aer.Nun n2.4042mntrvmam s.4nm.nlrslt.rnrtua.I tr,••.1.1 M,F<V.Prnryrry...n�.mn,ra'YH I(FFLUI Flw1t,s,.n.v.R.S. IO.mgaal.va FN.LLbRaLdb L)ms Mars.FWlal.M.re Yr roll R.I....rwa Mu..re...en. am".Lymsr.....1.1.1 Pwln • Cub..Wal,Cn...ala'n Oo0N Cwce)bbr,ead ae<ur(Coadatal.g be CCMite.HaadIUpnrl eftgaan LYAB e.<,tn ¢<uµ.Y. .iY. 0Ml Rnl1....zy,t 2 A LM.I.a net.ut,(H✓yce.trr )"'� tbrx<t=,JH{AmoUMe..,o.M la,l•4Yb.nMl 9tavey Um We....opt .MrJavetat Ires,,,,se ItY asn ea. el e,.00�... wale Ya 11 • ear.sr. co-erba ,,„ December 2016 CHAMP Newsletter, + —cm ene. M /, a , - 1 -Ltt tU1C4.se14r krIMC1wM,, _ , _• __ 1 act hnr4 d 1 —- u.a. — '/ December 2016 Newsletter Posted .• •r!`i1 .• • ,• Flood ColtaWewm Gp(Wld Jalferson I•. CamlleS.,.n,..,.N '.,._...I I •,,r ,r7 m,;,T,rse FAR r,ee,.9a waLerc tmmrry _ear �LJ•_,�11 karma tWreU(ehw and F(oJg op Neam[L,n drY snab,n Mne NzlPiR Plz b www.coloradohazardmapping.com * eH. -.'C CO b Estes Park Hydrology Study: Fall River, Upper Big Thompson River, Black Canyon Creek and Dry Gulch Dr.Andrew Earles, P.E., D.WRE Wright Water Engineers, Inc. February 27, 2017 Overview of Hydrology Study Need for Update Post-2013 Flood • Data Sources • Standard Hydrologic Methods • Calibrated to September 2013 Peak Flow Estimates Extensive Peer Review/Comments Proposed Regulatory Hydrology Updates \hib._ _ <,1 ll - f' !j l '-- • '401, ,-.-- l :1\;i—) r 1. Governing Principles 1 Use scientifically accepted methods and sound engineering principles. Tie hydrology back to reality by comparing with actual rainfall/runoff events. Hydrology Study Process //L/ Public Meeting`April 19,2016Draft Report July 2°26—Peer Reviewed and Submitted to FEMA Received comments on Jul 2oo26 draft report Additional Peak Flow Estimates from September 2°13 Flood Hydrology Study Process / f Addressed Comments on Draft July 2°26 Report Revised Report December 2016—Submitted to FEMA Addressed Additional Comments on December 2016 Report 0 Approved by FEMA—January io, 2°27 Final Report—January 25,2017 iit September 2013 Peak Flow Estimates i WkiiiiiiiheiEt4o.:fPakdF . ng n Calibratio Upper Big Thompson 7 1/ River Fall River 3 Black Canyon Creek 1 Dry Gulch 1 Bulletin 1.7B "If useful historic information is not available to adjust for high outliers, then they should be retained as part of the systematic record. The treatment of all historic flood data and high outliers should be well documented in the analysis." Peer Review i6 individuals contributed as advisers, peer reviewers, and commenters: • Town of Estes Park • Estes Valley Watershed Coalition • Colorado Water Conservation Board • FEMA • University of Colorado Denver independent peer reviewer • Bob Jarrett—Retired USGS • AECOM • Van Horn Engineering °1S • David Bauer—Floodplain Contractor forTown • Derek Rapp—Technical Consulting • CDOT Comparison of FIS Peak Discharges and Recommended Flows ( ,i„i , FIL- i%AEP(1oo-year) Proposed 1,.01 Existing(cfs) (cfs) FR at Confluence with Big 39.9 68o 1,860 Thom.son FR at Estes Park Corporate Limits 37.3 68o 1,740 FR at Upstream Detailed Study Limit 37.3 68o 1,740 nip Lake Estes 137.5 2,180 3,010 iii at St.Vrain Aven1111 136.9 2,180 3,010 UBT at Confluence with FR j 87.1 1r46o 2,170 .gs Drive 87.0 1,460 2,170 BCC at Confluence with Big Thompson 10.0 230 310 BCC at Estes Park Corporate Limits 9.3 210 290 6.3 2,750 715 \ ..) .\... i ..../ ESTES P.1MK V �/ oanM1.t coat,Re 'at e the Vfum FEDERAL, STATE AND LOCAL RESPONSIBILITIES David Sutley, P.E. - Federal Emergency Management Agency Kevin Houck, P.E., CFM - Colorado Water Conservation Board Tina Kurtz, CFM -Town of Estes Park ) \ J `,....../r NEW HYDROI.O(,Y AND MAPPING EVENTS TIMEL!NE 1,1,901,n of SW 01.002 to testy aolol nave..,Rona evun.:-r r,M.m,.yrola In n,,00n p.mx,m Slate-Ftonle0 Flooapleln Mapping. arr ll...r llounvurrainr yet,.l tars 0,M L.n.nr w•lwo .tyu-• .trv.. Oran Slat.M.P.AVallaole tat F:reA Valley aptingaa, II Slnenwaaea Fahn!luII'-t.l I r went, e rn lb co ,.,,nail. p w pID rr_ nenn nr, Ihn isle anc.F,0A rau tmt Rey,,.M r1 D.vnop,-!, 'ea Mu, 1017 2019 2020 i Hydro)oily Oasc Map Sltaly Re sull• State May Fib Roar Raab/rue FtlaA Dev.I�.prrlanl is hlnallt.d, Grant to Flnallte � tn.io,nnrnity♦dnp,late MeV Irev.loprnerrl Map:end R.0/121nnt arlJ Insurance Dnpin,roes fwmn.r at, (4 Into EHnel G tulYlmo Feb.lot,le Spring>otl:R..AMe:r and nrnInes.n r.sn nu.IN,.Infon0.1,9r rr.1spen 1,00,y 1, porcreltl floe,rldsnu11p1 on prof,.2r0 an1ons to nv-OetM Town nkr FEW canuvtb[-.ell Mings todHernnre anal Mlal o{.p�r.09101 yon.04 to 9,9l,0 tar 00904(0,02or suppen r.wurcM �/' nmrilne[nttscheerr M:[numeno1,11ons.0,acr9094h hYdrolo(vsnen,w mann.,In caoNNxbnwlrhlh,030ei<o'nrade oM MIA Trines ande,rnts s.r. In[banpn �-= Roles and Responsibilities rF ig Federal Role (FEMA) Flood Risk Mapping Flood Risk Management Flood Insurance-available to anyone State Role (CWCB) n it Community assistance Implementation of Legislative Directive of SB-245(Colorado Hazard Mapping Program) Local Role (Estes Park) Adoption of floodplain mappingand code(this is optional until FEMA P maps are updated,but highly recommended to avoid future problems) 11 <,, Flood risk mapping participation and outreach Ultimate Goal- Protect Life, Health, & Safety ESTES PAWK CURRENT TOWN ACTIVITIES l` C.4b.o.IM VY n • FISH CREEK INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECT • FALL RIVER CHANNEL RESTORATION BY HYDROPLANT • MORAINE BRIDGE REPLACEMENT • ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS SILVER JACKETS FLOODPROOFING STUDY • ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS SECTION 205 STUDY APPLICATION • STORMWATER MASTER PLAN& STORMWATER UTILITY FEASIBILITY STUDY • DOWNTOWN PLAN • FEDERAL/STATE/LOCAL PARTNERSHIPS 2;27/2012 ESTES PAUK POTENTIAL FUTURE TOWN/COMMUNITY b, tekb.eNe Yuon MITIGATION ACTIVITIES • STORMWATER INFRASTRUCTURE • BRIDGE AND RIVER CHANNEL CAPACITY ENLARGEMENT • FLOODPLAIN MASTER PLAN • FLOOD MITIGATION STUDIES AND PROJECTS • STREAMGAGE INSTALLATIONS • COMMUNITY RATING SYSTEM PARTICIPATION • CONTINUE FEDERAL/STATE/LOCAL PARTNERSHIPS 2/27/2017 ./ I,. ESTES F'.'." MITIGATION ACTIVITIES FOR �..� LANDOWNERS/BUSINESS OWNERS • STAY INFORMED AND INVOLVED • FLOODPROOFING/BUILDING TECHNIQUES • FLOOD INSURANCE • HELPING FIND AND IMPLEMENT SOLUTIONS TO CHALLENGES 2.27 2017 ✓ /�i1 ESTES P.ttt-IK ESTES PARK FLOODPLAIN MANAGEMENT • PARTICIPATE IN NATIONAL FLOOD INSURANCE PROGRAM (NFIP) • ADMINISTER LOCAL FLOODPLAIN REGULATIONS • INCLUDES: • ISSUING FLOODPLAIN DEVELOPMENT PERMITS • IMPLEMENTING FEDERAL AND STATE FLOODPLAIN REGULATIONS • ENFORCING VIOLATIONS OF FLOODPLAIN REGULATIONS na J\ , ESTES AU {>,tlfK V w.P ma CURRENT FLOODPLAIN MANAGEMENTI...00 • CURRENT REGULATORY CRITERIA • CDOT POST-FLOOD STUDY HYDROLOGY FOR REGULATION SINCE 2014 • FEMA FLOODWAY/FLOODPLAIN BOUNDARIES • (EFFECTIVE FLOOD INSURANCE RATE MAP (2006)) • CDOT AND HYDROLOGY STUDY (WWE) DISCHARGE COMPARISON: River CDOT(cfs) WWE(cfs) WWE vs CDOT(cfs) Big Thompson above Fall River 3,481 2,170 -1,311 Fall River at confluence with Big T 1,669 1,860 191 Big T below confluence with Black Canyon 5,064 3,010 -2,054 2/27/2017 IS ff ..J 1 try rtii�tu�e�KJu, FLOOD MITIGATION STRATEGIES TINA KURTZ, CFM FLOODPLAIN ADMINISTRATOR/ENVIRONMENTAL PLANNER/PLANNER III TOWN OF ESTES PARK/COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT DEPARTMENT February 27,2017 f •y/ • ESTES PAW+ TOWN WEBSITES/SOCIAL MEDIA :`•p° ' • WWW.ESTES.ORG/FLOODMITIGATION • WWW.ESTES.ORG/FLOODPLAINS • SIGN-UP FOR TOWN UPDATES VIA EMAIL AT WWW.ESTES.ORG/SUBSCRIBE • FOLLOW THE TOWN ON FACEBOOK AT WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/TOWNOFESTESPARKCO • FOLLOW THE TOWN ON TWITTER AT WWW.TWITTER.COM/TOWNOFESTESPARK 2227/20n ✓ � w\ ITS PART. TOWN OF ESTES PARK hIntaok100.cors (Hebrew mevWm FLOOD MITIGATION WEBSITE • www.EsTEs.oRG/FLooDmiriGAiiu, • HYDROLOGY STUDY REPORT • HYDROLOGY STUDY FAQ'S • ABOUT THE HYDROLOGY STUDY • NEW HYDROLOGY&MAPPING • HYDROLOGY STUDY METHODOLOGY • TOP OUTCOMES OF THE HYDROLOGY PEER REVIEW PROCESS 1411, • OTHER FLOOD MITIGATION INFORMATION 2/27/2017 •-. J ESTES P1N/: CONTACT INFORMATION tw •100 , Tina Kurtz, CFM Floodplain Administrator Environmental Planner/Planner III Town of Estes Park, Community Development Dept. (970) 577-3732 tkurtz@estes.org. 2.'27 2017