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HomeMy WebLinkAboutPACKET Town Board Study Session 2022-08-23 August 23, 2022 6:00 p.m. — 6:45 p.m. TOWN BOARDEP ® Board Room STUDY SESSION 5:45 p.m. Dinner In Person Meeting — Mayor, Trustees, Staff and Public AGENDA No public comment will be heard This study session will be streamed live and available on the Town Youtube page at www.estes.org/videos 6:00 p.m. Overview of Budgetary Implications of Recessions. (Director Hudson) 6:30 p.m. Semi-Annual Compliance Review with Board Governing Policies — Policy 1 .10 Self-Monitoring of the Board. (Mayor Koenig) 6:35 p.m. Trustee & Administrator Comments & Questions. 6:40 p.m. Future Study Session Agenda Items. (Board Discussion) 6:45 p.m. Adjourn for Town Board Meeting. Informal discussion among Trustees concerning agenda items or other Town matters may occur before this meeting at approximately 5:30 p.m. Page 1 F A IP TOWN OF ESTES P Report FINANCE To: Honorable Mayor Koenig Board of Trustees Through: Town Administrator Machalek From: Duane Hudson, Finance Director Date: 8/23/2022 RE: Overview of Budgetary Implications of Recessions Purpose of Study Session Item: To provide an update on the impact recessions may have on the Town finances and how the Town plans for these contingencies. Town Board Direction Requested: No direction needed, purely informational. Present Situation: With the recent talk in the media of a possible recession within the next year, the Town Board requested a presentation on the impacts of a recession. During the ongoing COVID 19 pandemic, the Town experienced very significant impacts for a few months. Would a subsequent recession like is being discussed in the media have a similar impact? Does the Town need to take extra precautions as the likelihood of a recession increases? Proposal: In 2017, the Town adopted Finance Policy 670 Cash and Investment Reserves and Contingency Policy (the Policy) to provide guidance during situations such as this. It goes beyond the ongoing monitoring done through the budget process, annual audits, monthly sales tax revenue reports and other periodic monitoring activities. It focuses on a month-to-month measure of available cash and investment reserves to determine if the Town has sufficient reserves to manage small events and also provide time to respond to larger or longer-term events. The policy then goes on to suggest possible actions be taken if the monthly reserves fall below two months operations. These suggestions are detailed out in the attached copy of the Policy. Advantages: The intent of the Policy is to provide time to take appropriate actions after fully considering the current situation, the extent of the event, the expected duration of the event, and other relevant circumstances. Since Town revenues do not stop immediately upon start of an event, smaller amounts will continue to come into the Town. Together with the available cash in the bank, the Town would likely have enough Page 3 funding for 3 to 4 months of operations or more before running out. This provides ample time to develop a well-conceived plan instead of needing to make an emergency, rushed decision in just a couple of weeks. Disadvantages: No significant disadvantages. Finance/Resource Impact: The impacts of any recession or other economic downturn are unknown until they happen. Any projections at this time would be purely speculation. Level of Public Interest Minimal Attachments: 1. 2022 Recession Impacts power point 2. Policy 670 Cash & Investment Reserve & Contingency Page 4 8/17/2022 Attachment 1 EP Town of Estes Park Potential Impacts of a Recession o_ . „.. 1. $� 155 . 6r; f. :3 •; . :i 324 ss_ss 96_50 $ r _G -- -za s9_46 -+ _ I I fp What is a Recession? Recession? ❖ A reduction in general economic activity ❖ Officially recognized after two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth rates ❖ Leading indicators can help identify a weakening economy before the actual GDP info is available ❖ Recessions are officially declared by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in the U.S. Page 5 8/17/2022 fp Recent Recessions • There have been 48 recessions in the U.S. dating back to the start of the nation. Recent recessions include: • COVID-1 9 Recession — Due to artificial job losses during initial phases of the pandemic ❖ Feb 2020 to April 2020 ••• 14.7% unemployment ❖ GDP declined 19.2% EPP Recent Recessions • (continued) • Great Recession - Due to the subprime mortgage housing crisis ❖ Dec 2007 to June 2009 ❖ 1 0.0% unemployment ❖ GDP declined 5.1% ❖ Early 2000s recession - Collapse of dot.com bubble, the Sept 1 1 th attacks, and fall in business outlays and investments ❖ March 2001 to Nov 2001 ••• 6.3% Unemployment ❖ GDP declined 0.3% Page 6 8/17/2022 p Impacts of COVID-19 Recession ❖ Very fast onset of impact as workers were laid off at the beginning of the pandemic ❖ Artificially created as a result of pandemic mitigation measures 4 Not the result of open market economic changes ❖ Travel and tourism temporarily ground to a halt • GDP decreased 1 9.2% during the 2-month duration ❖ Economy quickly began to recover as workers began to return to work fp Local Impacts of • COVID-19 Recession ❖ Sales tax collections decreased ❖ 2020 Total $15,129,112 ❖ 2019 Total $16,339,342 ❖ Decrease $ 1,21 0,230 or 7.4% ❖ Impacts lingered for months even though the recession was technically over • Continued travel restrictions, health risks, and job uncertainty Page 7 8/17/2022 p Town Response COVID-19 Recession ❖ Town responded by initiating budget reductions in April 2020 ❖ Sales tax projections were decreased by 42.8% ❖ Hiring freezes for vacancies were put into place ❖ Summer seasonal staff were reduced significantly ❖ Many events were cancelled due to gathering restrictions ❖ Total budgeted expenditures were reduced $9.8 million A Town Response COVID-19 Recession ❖ Monthly monitoring meetings were held by key staff, discussing the latest financial and nonfinancial information ❖ Utility delinquencies were monitored closely ❖ Cash and investments were managed to maintain adequate liquidity ❖ Additional budget reductions requested by some members of the community were not necessary as the economy began to recover later in the year. Page 8 8/17/2022 p Local Impacts of the Great Recession ❖ The Great Recession extended from Dec 2007 to June 2009 ❖ It was the most significant downturn since the Great Depression ❖ The duration of the Great Recesson's impact extended over a few years as travel and tourism returned to 2007 levels fp Local Impacts of the • Great Recession • Town sales tax revenues were temporarily impacted by approximately 5% ❖ Recovery began in 201 0 • Full recovery in 2011 • Sales tax collections decreased from a record high in 2007 ❖ 2007 Total $7,233,707 ❖ 2008 Total $7,183,997—decreased 0.6% from 2007 ❖ 2009 Total $6,852,574 —decreased 5.2% from 2007 ❖ 2010 Total $7,007,094 —decreased 3.1% from 2007 ❖ 2011 Total $7,422,536 —increased 2.6% from 2007 Page 9 8/17/2022 p Potential Impacts of Future Recessions on the Town ❖ Impacts will vary depending upon the underlying cause of the recession ❖ Typical impacts to the Town of Estes Park: ❖ Slow down in # of visitors ❖ Decreased duration of visit ❖ Visitors may reduce spending ❖ Sales tax revenues may decrease as a result ❖ Onset of a recession is generally much more gradual than during the COVID-1 9 Recession p Town Response to ' otential Future Recession ❖ The Town takes a very conservative approach to revenue projections, reducing likelihood of revenue shortfalls ❖ Town management monitors finances on a regular basis, at least monthly, and takes action prior to falling below the targets specified in Finance Policy 670 ❖ Town should be careful to not overreact with actions more drastic than necessary. ❖ If the recession is expected to be severe, budget amendments and other actions may become necessary • Actions must be tailored to the current event, including anticipated severity, expected term of the event, and other specifics Page 10 8/17/2022 P Town Response to Potential Future Recessions ❖ Finance Policy 670 approved July 2017 sets financial targets for available cash and investments ❖ If certain targets are not met, a range of contingency actions are invoked ❖ These contingencies escalate as the severity or duration of the event increases ❖ These actions include simple delays in purchases to drastic cuts in operations, including staffing reductions. {P, Recession Recap ❖ Finance Policy 670 approved July 2017 establishes a contingency plan to provide guidance for staff if an economic event, such as a Recession, occurs ❖ Town practices and the Cash and Investment Reserves allow time to manage local economic events ❖ Time to weather small events without totally disrupting operations ❖ Time to develop a comprehensive plan to manage the specifics of more significant events ❖ Time to allow mitigation measures to be implemented and begin to influence impacts before implementing more Page 11 8/17/2022 fp. Recession Recap ❖ In summary, the Town's fiscal policies and practices are sufficient to allow the Town to manage economic events in an effective and efficient manner, including recessions. ❖ If a recession materializes in the fall of 2022 or early 2023, the Town has funding for 6 months of operations in the bank. This will allow the Town to manage the impacts of the recession, evaluate the actual circumstances of the event, and then take appropriate action. Page 12 Attachment 2 Effective Period: Until superceded Review Schedule: Annually EPEffective Date: 07/11//17 References: Fund Balance Policy 660 FINANCE 670 Cash and Investment Reserve and Contingency Policy 1. PURPOSE The purpose of the Cash and Investment Balance Policy is to establish guidelines for minimum cash and investment balances to weather an unexpected significant downturn in the economy on a month-to-month basis. The Town has a formal fund balance policy establishing targeted minimum fund balance amounts measured annually at year end on a Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) basis. However, such a GAAP measurement is not generally available on a month-to-month basis. This Cash and Investment Reserve and Contingency Policy is intended to be complementary to the annual Fund Balance Policy by providing a measurement of monthly capability in addition to the annual measurement. This policy also provides a general approach to respond to any adverse financial and economic conditions in case the targeted balance is not met in any particular month. It establishes a foundation of principles and goals upon which budgetary and fiscal management decisions will be based. 2. POLICY a. Definitions i. Applicable funds include the General Fund, Special Revenue Funds, and Internal Service Funds. The Enterprise Funds (currently Light and Power Fund and Water Fund) are excluded. ii. Applicable fund cash and investment balance is the total balance of cash and investments determined by adding the actual month end balances per the bank/investment statements, adjusted for significant deposits in transit, outstanding checks, and other significant reconciling items. The cash and investment balance for the Enterprise Funds per the general ledger will be subtracted from the statement total to arrive at the "applicable fund cash and investment balance". iii. Average monthly appropriation is the total amended appropriations in the budget for the applicable funds, including capital outlay, divided by 12 months. Finance 670 Cash & Investment Reserve and Contingency Policy 5/22/2017 Revisions: 0 Town of Estes Park, Finance Page 1 of 3 Page 13 iv. Cash reserve ratio is defined as "applicable fund cash and investment balance" divided by "average monthly appropriation" b. Applicability This policy applies to the General Fund, Special Revenue Funds, and Internal Service Funds, which are primarily supported by sales tax revenues, whether the revenue is restricted for specific purposes or not. Sales tax revenues are more volatile and susceptible to changes in the local economy than many of the other Town revenue sources. The Town's utility operations are supported by user charges which vary based upon customer consumption. In the case of a significant downturn in the economy, the revenues would reflect the changes in consumption automatically. The utility operations also have specific requirements in the debt agreements which address reserve requirements for each utility operation. Recognizing that the utility operations are unique from the other Town functions, they will be excluded from this cash and investment balance policy. c. Cash Reserve Ratio Target Total cash and investments for the applicable funds will maintain a Cash Reserve Ratio of 2.0 or greater(equivalent to two months). 3. PROCEDURE a. Reporting The cash reserve ratio will be calculated and reported to the Town Board by the last day of the following month. This can be accomplished by inclusion of the ratio with other monthly reports (i.e. the economic dashboard). b. Contingency Plan If balances should fail to meet the cash reserve ratio at the end of any month, the following steps should be considered to mitigate potential impacts. The guiding principles behind this contingency plan are to protect and enhance our community's quality of life for the present and future generations, achieved through careful planning, fiscal responsibility and continuous monitoring and improvement. Declines in revenues will be analyzed in conjunction with expenditure trends, in order to consider the net impact to the Town's financial stability. To the extent that expenditure savings offset declines in revenue, reduction measures will not be implemented. The following measures are only suggestions of the types of actions to be considered and are subject to Town Administrator discretion, based upon the severity of the ratio discrepancy, the expected length of the event, and other relevant factors. These are not intended to be comprehensive and are only examples of the types of actions that can be taken in response to the situation. Finance 670 Cash & Investment Reserve and Contingency Policy 5/22/2017 Revisions: 0 Town of Estes Park, Finance Page 2 of 3 Page 14 i. Ratio missed target— one month 1. Town Administrator may consider delaying discretionary purchases for one month until the ratio is 2.0 or greater. 2. Town Administrator may consider delaying the award and execution of new contracts and / or projects. 3. Town Administrator may consider delays in travel and training. 4. Filling vacant positions may be delayed one month with Town Administrator approval of all exceptions. ii. Ratio missed target— two months in a row 1. Town Administrator may consider implementing work furloughs as a temporary cost saving measure. 2. Town Administrator may consider reductions in seasonal staffing. 3. Town Administrator may consider mandatory hiring freezes. 4. Town Administrator may consider elimination of travel and training costs. 5. Town Administrator may consider delaying of cash disbursements. iii. Ratio missed target— three months in a row or more 1. Town Administrator may consider eliminating existing capital projects. Depending on the severity of the situation, this may include cancelling / delaying indefinitely projects already under contract. 2. Town Administrator may reduce/eliminate discretionary services until conditions improve. 3. Town Administrator may consider targeted service level reductions until conditions improve. 4. Town Administrator must approve all expenditures over$5,000 prior to ordering / purchase as necessary and critical for continued operations of the Town. 5. Town Administrator may consider, depending on the severity of the condition, reductions in work force. Approved: Todd Jirsa, M or Date Finance 670 Cash & Investment Reserve and Contingency Policy 5/22/2017 Revisions: 0 Town of Estes Park, Finance Page 3 of 3 Page 15 F TOWN BOARD STUDY SESSION MEETING August 23, 2022 Semi-Annual Compliance Review with Board Governing Policies — Policy 1 . 10 Self- Monitoring of the Board. No packet material will be provided for this item. Page 17 F A EP TOWN oi ESTES PARK Future Town Board Study Session Agenda Ite August 23, 2022 September 13, 2022 Items Approved — Unscheduled: • None • 1A Renewal • Zoom Public Participation Option September 27, 2022 • Air Quality and Woodsmoke • Fire District Sales Tax Percentage • Governing Policies Updates Request • Stanley Park Master Plan Implementation • Quarterly Comprehensive Plan Advisory Committee Update • Downtown Loop Updates as Necessary Items for Town Board Consideration: • Draft Downtown Wayfinding Plan — September 27, 2022 Page 19 F